economy


In today’s post on Supply Excellence Tim Minahan makes an excellent point about the lack of proper oversight of purchasing practices in the federal government. Imagine the biggest spender in the world NOT having an appointed CPO and a competent team to oversee the expenditure of upwards of 3 trillion dollars. Granted, some lieutenants are in place now, but the team is not complete.

Every company in the world right now is looking into ways to become more efficient in their spend management. There are ways in which they can save money and they are looking furiously into that right now.

But Congress is blocking the nomination of the only persons who can actually help change wasteful practices and at the same time blames the administration of not being efficient in the shedding of taxpayers’ money. What a bad example to spend managers elsewhere. So much talking about saving money for health care but little action in actually saving it.

UPDATE: I just realized that Jason Busch from Spend Matters and Justin Fogarty, Editor of Supply Excellence co-authored the article, which also appears in the Spend Matters blog.

Carlos Ortiz

In the Economix blog hosted at The New York Times, there is a very enlightening posting by Simon Johnson an entrepreneurship professor at M.I.T. in which he makes a very good point by saying that we shouldn’t focus all our attention in the US markets, as its GDP only accounts for less than 25% of the global output.

As he puts it, there are significant risks associated with the lack of action and market intervention in the EU. The fiscal expansion and bank bailouts now all over the news in the New World, are very timid on the other side of the pond.

And top Europeans are still at the denial game (yes, policy makers need to appear confident; but no one is inspired by the sight of heads in the sand). Despite serious problems in the banking systems of many European countries, the fall in global trade, and the general global move to lower spending, the commission is clinging to a forecast of basically zero growth in 2010 (more precisely, they predict a 0.1 percent fall).

This situation in reality is giving some emerging economies the chance to become more competitive. They are mid-sized, and their governments seem to be more aggressive in the steps they are taking to bolster their economies.

The danger, as Professor Johnson explains, is that the bigger economic blocks, threatened by this new competitiveness from outsiders, with increase protectionism and further slow the international trade. Hope it doesn’t happen.

In a post today in The Huffington Post, Ralph Gomory describes, among other things, some ways to correct the US trade imbalances. In his post, he outlines four different steps to align national and corporate goals in the US. Step 1 is “Balancing trade”. It is in that section of the post where he refers to some very interesting ways to accomplish it.

Excerpt:

Fortune magazine eloquently described the need for balanced trade and suggested an approach to obtaining it. Under the Buffet plan, exporters would receive certificates equal to the dollar value of the goods they export. Importers would need to buy these certificates to cover the dollar value of the goods they import. The certificates would be sold on an open market. This would force the value of imports to match the value of exports and, in contrast to quotas or tariffs, would not be aimed at particular countries or industries. This plan and some of its variants have been carefully studied (see forthcoming reports from the Economic Policy Institute) and it is now time to take this approach seriously.

The above comment is startling, because, as he mentions in his article afterwards, it can be considered protectionism. Clearly, is not easy to balance US trade deficit, and the solutions that are being proposed are starting to get unorthodox.

So, what do we do as Sourcing specialists? How do we manage our material and services flow from outside of the US when (and if) the government steps in to cap the outflows of cash? Are we developing internal or alternative sources? Can we develop those efficiently and profitably? What about US competitiveness? These are good questions that need to be answered during the debate about this issue, and our profession must contribute to it as the subject matter experts. After all, when the CEOs started to cut costs bowing to pressures from Wall Street, it was us, the sourcing guys, who helped accomplish it, and we are also the ones who clearly understand the challenges to reverse the move.

My sources tell me that some American companies are finding it increasingly difficult to sell sourcing services to Latin American companies. There can be a numbers of causes for it. I’ll research the issue and report back with a feature article in the coming days showing empirical data to substantiate that assertion (or not!)

The widely reviewed Purchasing Managers Index [PMI] from the Institute for Supply Management just published last Friday reveals a four-month long steady increase, with a new monthly value of 40.1 for April 2009. Although the index only shows real growth when it is at 50 or above, the current trend tells that the contraction is moving at a slower pace. We are not out of the woods by any means, but it certainly gives us hope that at least we are moving in the right direction.

Twice a year, AT Kearney publishes the Executive Agenda, which according to them is a:

…business journal of featured articles, research reports and management insights.

Well, it turns out that what they produce is normally right on the spot of what is going on in sourcing and procurement and also presents some insights around potential strategies to cop with current economic conditions.

In their last edition one of their articles presents the readers with twelve areas to focus on during this economic downturn. Worth reading if you want to move through this dangerous waters. Each idea also refers to a more detailed paper or article expanding on the topic at hand, so please be sure you have enough time to read through all that.

[Full article here]

If you or your company import goods from overseas, it is likely that those goods are priced in US Dollars. If the dollar loses value against foreign currencies, then importing becomes more expensive as your foreign suppliers will demand  more dollars to pay for the same goods.

Currently, the future for the greenback relies upon China’s gigantic foreign reserves. Interestingly, if China decides to get rid of the dollar and buy other currencies, automatically their entire portfolio will lose value, hence the “trap” referenced in the title.

In an article on Yale Global, Wenran Jiang explains in more detail why is China caught in a trap and how it is getting out of it.

Prominent Chinese economists like Yu Yongding and others have long called for moving away from US treasury bills and assets to investing more in tangible assets. It looks like Beijing is now more determined than ever to avoid the trap of a “T-bills republic” and becoming instead a hard asset republic. Its challenge is to take just enough steps to walk away from the dollar but not too fast or too dramatic that may hurt the value of China’s US dollar holdings. China may not be doing what the world expects it to do but its tentative steps away from dollar dependence could help rebalance the world economy.

Don’t worry fellas, the old greenback will hold. Keep your contracts in place and don’t buy expensive hedges.

[Full article here]

In yesterday’s edition of The Economist, an article talks about potential good news on the economic outlook for the US, despite the GDP shrinkage of 6.1% in the first quarter. Government will be spending the money of the stimulus package and individuals are actually increasing spend by 2.2%. But the worrisome picture is that as the third sector, companies reduced investments by an alarming 38%. It looks like the purchasing departments at several corporations are either in overdrive to save money at all costs, or they are idling. Or maybe received a pink slip.

The article concludes by saying

Even if the economy does pick up in the second half of the year, it is unlikely to do so quickly enough to absorb all the office, hotel and retail space now coming on stream. Recovery will thus have to depend on consumers not growing faint of heart and on the Fed and Treasury successfully recapitalising banks and hiving off banks’ bad debts.

[Full article here]